BPIF Print Outlook reveals worst output balance since Covid

The latest BPIF Printing Outlook survey has revealed a downturn in the UK print market for Q2 of 2026, in large part due to political uncertainties and the conflict in the Middle East.

The data from the British Printing Industries Federation (BPIF) depicts an industry suffering from a concentrated period of cost increases that have necessitated price rises, but not to the degree required to protect cash flow, margins, or profits.

Over two-fifths (42%) of printers surveyed experienced a decrease in their output levels in the second quarter of 2026. Less than two-fifths (37%) were able to hold output steady, while the remaining 21% achieved an increase in their output levels.

The difference between positive and negative responses was therefore -21, a long way below the result of -2 in Q1 2026, and just below the Q2 forecast of -18. This outcome is the most negative output balance reported for six years, when output was restrained by the Covid-19 shutdown.

However, the Outlook survey predicts that the impact on all costs is not expected to be severely prolonged, with a recovery expected for Q3. According to the survey, output growth is expected to increase for 33% of companies, with a balance of +7 forecasted.

The Outlook revealed that industry confidence was strongly negative in Q2, but has not sunk to the depths feared when the Q2 forecast was made in April.

Confidence in the general state of trade improved for just over one-tenth (11%) of respondents in Q2, while for 60% it remained the same. The remaining 29% reported that the general state of trade had deteriorated in Q2.

Sales levels was selected by 55% of respondents as one of their top five business concerns, up from 33% in April. Worries over the level of profits that are being generated has moved up the ranking to become the second ranked concern in July, selected by 39% of respondents, up from 32% in April.

Competitor pricing levels remains the third ranked business concern, this time with a 34% share of respondents selecting it. Despite remaining third in ranking, fewer selected it as a concern than in April, January, and last October when it had a 53% share. Global unrest follows behind with a reduced 32% share in July, down from 58% in April.

Kyle Jardine, BPIF economist, says: “Companies have referenced confidence being hit by uncertainty, leading to delays in purchasing decisions and investments. Most costs have increased by similar amounts in a short period of time – but not all have been passed on as price increases.

“Orders and output have taken a knock, but the industry is expecting some degree of recovery as we move into the second half of the year. Despite the future direction of government policy still being unclear, and the lack of endgame certainty over conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine – the industry is forecasting that Q2 will be the low point for 2026 and that confidence and activity levels will improve in Q3.”

Charles Jarrold, BPIF chief executive, adds: “Some persistent and common gripes remain; lack of investment support, an increasing regulatory burden, more obstacles in trading with the EU, recruiting difficulties, damaging effects of minimum wage increases, and inconsistencies in business rates – to list a few.

“We do of course voice such concerns in our regular representations to government; we’ll find out more about the direction the new prime minister will take in the next few weeks and months.”

The full BPIF Printing Outlook Q3 2026 can be downloaded from the BPIF website.