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The BPIF’s latest Outlook for print and its associated industries shows a positive output volume in Q4, but lowering industry confidence – and a predicted decline in output balance for Q1 of 2026
2025 finished with the strongest output and order performance in the UK print industry for four years, according to the Q1 2026 Printing Outlook survey from the British Printing Industries Federation (BPIF).
Q4 results from the BPIF show that the year ended with healthy activity levels, although the quarter didn’t quite match the “dramatic turnaround” predicted by its previous Q4 Outlook.
According to the latest Printing Outlook survey, exactly half (50%) of printers were able to increase their output levels in the fourth quarter of 2025. Over one-third (35%) were able to hold output steady, whilst the remaining 12% experienced a decline in their output levels.
The resulting balance of the output increases and decreases was listed as +35, a little down on Q3’s calculated outturn of +39 and a bit further below the Q4 forecast of +45, but still the second highest reported output balance since Q4 of 2021.
Despite the positive Q4 balance, the BPIF has predicted a further decline in Q1 of 2026, with a forecasted balance of +15.
Although the BPIF says that 2026 has started positively, confidence in the general state of the trade has reportedly taken a knock amidst concerns about the UK’s economic climate and looming cost increases.
Concerns over wage pressures have risen back to the top of list of printers’ top business concerns, pushing ahead of sales concerns and the belief that competitors are pricing below cost.
Wage pressure has been selected by 60% of respondents as one of their top five business concerns, up from 46% in October.
Kyle Jardine, economist at the BPIF, says: “Orders and output didn’t quite match the optimistic forecasts for Q4, but the performance results were still very positive, and the outlook for Q1 is relatively upbeat compared to recent Q1 performances.
“However, when it comes to the general state of the trade, the negative confidence outlook for Q1 is a concern. Printing and printed packaging companies have considerable pressures on them in the form of wage pressures, demand, competition, and other cost and administrative burdens – but many companies are still upbeat about their own performance potential and have made strong investment plans for the year ahead.”
Charles Jarrold, chief executive at the BPIF, adds: “It was encouraging to see an uplift in expectations and, to a slightly lesser degree, business activity levels at the end of 2025, and we all hope that will continue into this year.
“The expected concerns are showing through however – we know businesses are concerned about additional costs and red tape, notably on employment costs, which stand out strikingly as the top concern in this survey.”
